countingtrash

Editor's note: This was originally supposed to be posted at thanksgiving. Apparently I hit save instead of post.

In the development of modern mathematics, no single achievement approaches that of Sir Isaac Newton's (and Leibniz's) invention of modern calculus. The meat of Newton's work is applied to derivatives: the rate of change of a function. He used his new found techniques in such a manner as to determine accelerations of objects from rest, i.e. gravity. Throw in a falling apple, and a myth that skewed the real contribution is born.

Without knowledge of a rate of change, no predictions of the future can be accurately made. If you were to show a child a picture of two race cars, one far behind the other on the track, and asked him who he believed would win the race, 99 times out of 100 he would say the car with the current lead. The truth is, you cannot determine who will win from a picture because you don't have the rate of change in the position of the cars. The trailer could be going at 200 mph whilest the lead car is stalled out.

It's not just children that are prone to errors in contemplating rates of change... that error is made in ALL phases of our lives, by people brilliant and stupid equally. Our current economic crisis is a function of these errors in rates of change. In August 2008, the discussion was of five dollar gas prices, not of economic collapse. The reason is simple: Gas prices in the recent past were rising. Defaults on subprime housing were not to the same extent.

The inability to create an accurate model of a rate of change is what causes markets to shift violently, or sluggers to be considered vastly overpaid, or all manner of headaches and serendipity in our world that would be considered "luck." Take for example the anecdote of Seth MacFarlane's ticket on American Airlines Flight 11, which hit One World Trade Center, on September 11th. The Family Guy creator ran late for a flight following a hangover and an incorrect departure time. Normally, these would be considered bad luck. Obviously, they saved his life. If you took from his recent past his rate of change, you never would have guessed that those "misfortunes" would end up saving his life.

A more crucial question comes into play when we observe the mastermind of those attacks, Osama bin Laden. He was at one point an ally of the CIA in the Soviet-Afghan war under Operation Cyclone. How did he come to perpitrate one of the most deadly foreign attacks on American soil ever? It turns out, his pride was hurt. In 1991, as Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, OBL offered his services to the Sultan Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. When the prince rightly asked how he would avoid the chemical and biological missles of the Iraqi army with no caves with which to fight from, he was with a response from bin Laden that they would fight on faith alone. As history shows, the Sultan decided that US cruise missles are far more effective deterants to the Iraqi army than faith alone. With his pride hurt, Osama began to speak out against the Monarchy, and their infidel allies, the US.

In hindsight, reading over that course of events, the development of his turn away from the US seems obvious. We don't have the luxury of hindsight. We do not know what the future holds for us, so people question whether or not a single human life has the ability to change. If we could recognize the potential of that moment of change however... how could we change our world? Would the twin towers still be standing?

I took a long time getting through my initial rambling to get to the other half of the title: It's Gaelic for The Troubles. Whilest the Troubles in my forebears' land ended with the 1998 Good Friday agreement, mine have been going on roughly since that time. Thanksgiving has always been a particularly tough time for me, as it has traditionally marked the beginning of my troubles. I had already began developing anxiety attacks and my shoulder problems were already developing, but it was at Thanksgiving in 1998 that I finally acknowledged the rate of change in my fortunes.

My father sat at the kids' table, away from the adults, including myself, a far more logical choice for the kid's table at the age of 16. The fighting between him and my mother had reached such a pitch they couldn't even stand to share a holiday meal together. The writing was on the wall for me. My family was to suffer a very painful and awkward amputation.

Looking back now, 90% of my life since has been dominated by the chain reaction set forth by that one moment. The upward momentum of potential Ivy Leagues, of success, had topped off, unbeknownst to me. I've lost a job, lost a functioning arm, taken 87 years to graduate despite already finishing a year of college before I ever set foot in one, lost my independence, gained quite a bit of debt, and lost a good bit of my sanity.

Looking at my past... it hurts. It hurts a lot. Every moment I look back on is a squandered opportunity, or a moment I was too afraid to seize, partially due to my lowered expectations of positive results. My ability to forecast a positive rate of change had failed, all I could see was the downward spiral, much in the same way the economic forecasters only see higher gas prices because they're looking for past trends. In doing so, I in many ways created the path for myself. It is only by acknowledging my own complicity in this that I can begin to change.

And I can change. Not because my luck will change, or because fate's hand will intercede. We are not an equation whose results are predetermined. We are the derivation of our own rates of change. Our actions may be irrevocable once committed, and influenced by factors out of our hands, but fatalism is nothing for which to strive: In the words of the Hold Steady "We are our only saviors." as only we can enact a change in an otherwise set course through our own conscious decision. Swim upstream swim downstream, but ultimately it is your choice. For too long, I looked at life as an exercise in risk management, avoiding pain in the short term wherever possible, for fear of additional longer term pain on the horizon. Any life worth living is not an exercise in risk management however. You make a choice, it alters the path. In failing to alter a path, you make the choice to not choose, and in so doing, give up your own personal agenda, whilest still suffering the consequences as you still own the path regardless of whether or not you want to own it. For too long I've not seen the error in this methodology. But like Newton with his development of calculus, the inherent truth in the solution is obvious once understanding is reached.